AUD/USD – Support at 0.80 Being Severely Tested

AUD/USD for Tuesday, May 19, 2015

To start this new week the Australian dollar is enjoying some support from around 0.80 however in the recent hours it is severely testing the support at this level.  The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid week last week which culminated in a new three month high above 0.8150 in the middle of last week before easing lower.  The last few weeks has seen the Australian dollar on a roller-coaster ride moving from below 0.78 and up to near 0.82. A couple of weeks ago the Australian dollar surged higher however it ran into resistance right around 0.7950 and 0.80 before easing slightly and consolidating in a narrow range between 0.7850 and 0.79 to finish out the week. A few weeks ago it enjoyed a solid start to the week, moving to a three month high just shy of 0.81. It then eased back towards the key 0.7850 level again where it received some support.

Since the beginning of March the Australian dollar has relied heavily on support at the 0.76 level. Below 0.76 its next obvious support level is down at 0.7550 and it will hoping to be propped up by it. Back in early March the Australian dollar made a statement and broke down strongly through the key 0.77 level which then provided significant resistance for the following few days. It was also able to enjoy some short term support around 0.7550 which propped it up and allowed it to rally strongly back up to above 0.79. Throughout February the Australian dollar made repeated attempts to move up strongly to the resistance level at 0.7850 however it was rejected every time and sent back easing lower, which is why this level remains significant presently. Just prior to that towards the end of February the Australian dollar moved through the resistance at 0.7850 to reach a new four week high around 0.7900. In the second half of January, the Australian dollar fell very sharply and break lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200.

Back in mid-January it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82 only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level. In doing so it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83 before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in. Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and trade within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650.

Australia retains scope to lower interest rates further, the central bank’s second in command said, while warning against spurring a debt-fueled spending boom.  “There is a fairly fine line to tread” in balancing the need to encourage household spending and business investment while preventing imbalances emerging in the economy, Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said in Sydney Monday. Australia has been trying to engineer a transition from mining since late 2011 when investment and commodity prices peaked.  Responding to an audience question on the policy outlook after his speech, Lowe said “nothing has changed” despite the central bank not having provided future guidance when it cut rates to a record-low 2 percent on May 5. “We still have scope to lower interest rates if we need to. That doesn’t mean we’re going to, but we have scope to do that,” Lowe said.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD May 19 at 02:30 GMT   0.7975   H: 0.7999   L: 0.7971

AUD/USD Technical

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

0.8000

0.7850

0.7700

0.8200

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During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is placing lots of pressure around the key 0.80 level.  Current range: trading right around 0.80.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8000, 0.7850, and 0.7700.

• Above: 0.8200.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back towards 60% as the Australian dollar has consolidated right around 0.80.  The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.

Economic Releases

23:50 (Mon) JP GDP (Prelim.) (Q1)

01:30 AU RBA minutes released

03:00 NZ RBNZ Infl ation Expectations (Q2)

08:30 UK CPI (Apr)

08:30 UK Input & Output Prices (unadj.) (Apr)

08:30 UK ONS House Prices (Mar)

09:00 EU HICP (Apr)

09:00 EU Trade Balance (sa) (Mar)

09:00 EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (May)

12:30 US Building Permits (Apr)

12:30 US Housing Starts (Apr)

* All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.