AUD/USD – Limited Movement as Jobless Claims Meets Expectations

AUD/USD is showing limited movement on Thursday, as the pair is trading in the high-0.83 range. The Aussie remains in a sharp downward trend, having lost about 350 points in the past two weeks. In Australia, Retail Sales slipped to 0.4% and the trade deficit showed strong improvement. In the US, Unemployment Claims improved to 297 thousand.

Australian Retail Sales posted a modest gain of 0.4% in October. Although this beat the estimate of 0.1%, it was a sharp drop from the previous reading of 1.2% and marked a three-month low. There was better news from Trade Balance, as the trade deficit improved sharply to A$1.32 billion, well below the forecast of A$1.85 billion. On Wednesday. Earlier in the week, there were no surprises from the RBA, which held interest rates at 2.50%, a record low. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated that the central bank plans to keep rates at ultra-low levels for the near future. The RBA has been reluctant to tinker with rate levels, which have remained steady since August 2013.

There was good news on the employment front, as jobless claims improved to 297 thousand, practically matching the forecast. We’ll get a look at the official Nonfarm Employment Change report on Friday, with the markets expecting a strong reading of 231 thousand. If the indicator meets expectations, the wobbly Aussie could resume its downward slide.

AUD/USD for Thursday, December 4, 2014

AUD/USD December 4 at 13:50 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8394 L: 0.8429 H: 0.8356

AUD/USD Technical

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

0.8150

0.8240

0.8315

0.8456

0.8550

0.8668

AUD/USD has been marked by limited movement during the day.

0.8456 is an immediate support level. 0.8550 is next.

0.8315 is the next support level.

Current range: 0.8315 to 0.8456.

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 0.8315, 0.8240, 0.8150 and 0.8081

Above: 0.8456, 0.8550, 0.8668, 0.8763 and 0.8820

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, reversing the direction we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

00:30 Australian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.4%.

00:30 Australian Trade Balance. Estimate -1.85B. Actual -1.32B.

00:30 US FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks.

12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.

13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 296K. Actual 297K.

13:30 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.

15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -51B.

17:30 US FOMC Member Lael Mester Speaks.

22:30 AIG Construction Index.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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